Promises, Polls, and the Price We Pay

Nigel Farage will never be prime minister, and Zack Polanski won’t lead a government. Labour is expected to win the next election, even though the polls are misleading. Farage recently dropped Reform’s old economic plans for vague promises. Financial experts in London are worried that if Reform took power, UK borrowing costs could double, or even get worse.

Running a country’s finances is like balancing a house on a pencil—if you change one thing, you have to balance it somewhere else. Liz Truss failed at this in 2022, and the UK is still paying for it. The bond market still charges the UK extra because of past mistakes, and the country spends £105 billion a year just on debt interest. Reform, the Greens, and Your Party are making even bigger promises that don’t add up.

Even if Reform copied Labour’s financial plans, investors would still panic because of political risk. Investors trust experienced, centrist governments, not parties with little experience or wild ideas. Farage’s history of pushing the Bank of England and breaking promises makes things riskier.

Since 2008, hedge funds have replaced banks in the bond market, and they want higher returns and react quickly to political drama. A quarter of UK debt is owned by foreigners, making the country more vulnerable. A Reform government could cause a financial crisis even before taking office.

The Greens and far-left parties also make risky promises to spend much more, which could have serious consequences. The UK’s high debt and political divisions make things even harder.

Polls today mostly show people’s feelings and wishful thinking, not realistic plans. If investors believed these promises, Labour’s borrowing costs would already be rising—but they’re not. Rachel Reeves’s next budget will focus on stability, which is needed to keep public services running. In the end, governments have options like printing money, but investors and markets care about trust, stability, and the numbers behind the promises.